After my recent post on parlaying O/U and ATS depending upon the size of the spread, I received a request to look at the ratio of spreads and totals in NCAAF. So situations in which the spread is an outlandish percentage of the total, like 35%+. For example, in today's Georgia-Vanderbilt game, Georgia is favored by 25.5 with an over/under of 56. That 25.5 point spread thus represents 45.5% of the overall expected points in the game (25.5/56), which is a fairly lopsided ratio. Is there value in games where one team's score alone is supposed to make up a good portion of that game's total points?
As before, a standard 2-team payout is 13/5 (+260), and at +260, you need to hit above 27.78% of the time to turn a profit. (Note: with heavily skewed NCAAF games, most books actually don't let you parlay a side and an over/under. But this strategy can be applied to individual bets as well). So I looked at varying ratios of spreads to totals over the past 5 years of college football, and combining bets on the favorite and the over is a remarkably profitable strategy as the ratio escalates:
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| | | | | |
| FAV + OVER | Actual | % | Return | ROI | % Occur |
| 20% | 414 | 27.62% | -9 | -0.57% | 42.18% |
| 25% | 339 | 28.70% | 39 | 3.34% | 33.23% |
| 30% | 273 | 30.67% | 93 | 10.43% | 25.04% |
| 35% | 215 | 32.33% | 109 | 16.39% | 18.71% |
| 40% | 158 | 32.71% | 86 | 17.76% | 13.59% |
| 45% | 114 | 34.03% | 75 | 22.51% | 9.43% |
| 50% | 76 | 33.78% | 49 | 21.60% | 6.33% |
| 55% | 58 | 37.66% | 55 | 35.58% | 4.33% |
| 60% | 41 | 37.27% | 38 | 34.18% | 3.10% |
| 65% | 24 | 37.50% | 22 | 35.00% | 1.80% |
The more outlandish the ratio is, the more profitable it is, but of course the higher that ratio gets, the less often it occurs. If you can get any favorite that makes up 30%+ of the overall total, you're looking at a very high ROI.
I also looked at dogs + unders, in case you want to cover your risk a bit and hedge on the other extreme. There is some value in doing so, but only once you get to the sweet spot of a 45-60% ratio:
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| | | | | |
| DOG + UNDER | Actual | % | Return | ROI | % Occur |
| 20% | 403 | 26.88% | -48 | -3.22% | 42.18% |
| 25% | 320 | 27.10% | -29 | -2.46% | 33.23% |
| 30% | 230 | 25.84% | -62 | -6.97% | 25.04% |
| 35% | 178 | 26.77% | -24 | -3.64% | 18.71% |
| 40% | 134 | 27.74% | -1 | -0.12% | 13.59% |
| 45% | 100 | 29.85% | 25 | 7.46% | 9.43% |
| 50% | 71 | 31.56% | 31 | 13.60% | 6.33% |
| 55% | 49 | 31.82% | 22 | 14.55% | 4.33% |
| 60% | 35 | 31.82% | 16 | 14.55% | 3.10% |
| 65% | 17 | 26.56% | -3 | -4.38% | 1.80% |
Interesting concept. I would have guessed that a large spread would automatically keep a smart bettor away. But your analysis proves there is value in some of these matchups even with a large spread.
ReplyDeleteA parlay is a single bet that links together two or more individual wagers for a high payout. A 2 team parlay might pay 13/5, a three team parlay might pay 6/1, a four team parlay might pay 10/1, and so forth with the payouts getting higher with more teams or totals selected. For a single bet, 2 to 8 teams or totals can be selected.
ReplyDeleteVisit : parlay calculator