Caveats on sports picks

A few additional points on my picks:

• I will never pick for or against Carolina. In any sport. You just don't do that.

• Inversely, I'll never pick for or against Duke. I cheer for two teams: Carolina and whoever's playing d00k.

• I'll never post a pick for any of my other favorite teams either, which really only include the Tampa Bay Rays.

• The picks are rated 1-5, but 4- and 5-star picks may not necessarily be "locks". Instead, it indicates a higher expected payoff versus the moneyline. While this often does imply a higher probability of winning, it may not pick the huge favorite every single time. 

Instead of thinking in terms of "for sure wins", look at things in terms of probabilities. Even if a favorite has a 90% chance of winning, that still means 10% of the time they're going to lose. The goal is to find when everyone else thinks that underdog won't ever win: knowing that in fact sometimes they will. We're concerned with outcomes in the long run and consistency.