My methodology uses each team's strength of schedule and win probabilities for each game to determine their expected number of wins in the upcoming season. In making each pick, I consider both value on the betting line (acquired from Bovada) and also making the strict over/under pick (assuming even money on either side). The following picks for each team are ranked from most likely to least likely; note that a moneyline pick is only included if it has value.
Team: Kansas City Chiefs
O/U: 7.5
Pick: Under (90.83%)
Moneyline: U @ -125
Team: Philadelphia Eagles
O/U: 7.5
Pick: Under (84.95%)
Moneyline: U @ -125
Team: Chicago Bears
O/U: 8.5
Pick: Over (73.99%)
Moneyline: O @ -130
Team: Detroit Lions
O/U: 8
Pick: Under (73.60%)
Moneyline: U @ -130
Team: Seattle Seahawks
O/U: 10.5
Pick: Over (71.23%)
Moneyline: O @ -145
Team: San Diego Cargers
O/U: 7.5
Pick: Over (68.97%)
Moneyline: O @ 100
Team: New Orleans Saints
O/U: 9
Pick: Under (68.11%)
Moneyline: U @ 115
Team: Tampa Bay Bucs
O/U: 9
Pick: Under (66.78%)
Moneyline: U @ -140
Team: Denver Broncos
O/U: 11.5
Pick: Over (66.12%)
Moneyline: O @ -115
Team: St. Louis Rams
O/U: 7.5
Pick: Under (65.16%)
Moneyline: U @ -105
Team: New England Patriots
O/U: 11
Pick: Over (64.69%)
Moneyline: O @ 110
Team: Cincinnati Bengals
O/U: 8.5
Pick: Over (63.86%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Miami Dolphins
O/U: 8
Pick: Under (63.16%)
Moneyline: U @ -125
Team: New York Giants
O/U: 9
Pick: Over (62.49%)
Moneyline: O @ -115
Team: New York Jets
O/U: 6.5
Pick: Under (62.21%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Green Bay Packers
O/U: 10.5
Pick: Under (62.09%)
Moneyline: U @ -115
Team: Dallas Cowboys
O/U: 8.5
Pick: Under (60.21%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Jacksonville Jaguars
O/U: 5
Pick: Under (59.19%)
Moneyline: U @ -110
Team: Tennessee Titans
O/U: 6.5
Pick: Under (58.45%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Atlanta Falcons
O/U: 10
Pick: Over (56.93%)
Moneyline: O @ 105
Team: Arizona Cardinals
O/U: 5.5
Pick: Under (56.88%)
Moneyline: U @ 100
Team: Minnesota Vikings
O/U: 7.5
Pick: Over (56.40%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Washington Redskins
O/U: 8.5
Pick: Over (55.13%)
Moneyline: O @ 105
Team: Indianapolis Colts
O/U: 8.5
Pick: Under (54.81%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Pittsburgh Steelers
O/U: 9
Pick: Under (54.49%)
Moneyline: U @ 105
Team: Cleveland Browns
O/U: 6
Pick: Over (54.01%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Buffalo Bills
O/U: 6.5
Pick: Under (52.79%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Carolina Panthers
O/U: 7
Pick: Over (52.37%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Baltimore Ravens
O/U: 8.5
Pick: Over (51.22%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Oakland Raiders
O/U: 5.5
Pick: Under (50.72%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: San Francisco 49ers
O/U: 11
Pick: Over (50.48%)
Moneyline: No bet
Team: Houston Texans
O/U: 10.5
Pick: Over (50.24%)
Moneyline: No bet
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