Here are the MDS Model's win total over/under picks for the 2015-2016 NFL season. The calculations are pretty simple: I used the Composite component my model (which is a composite (thus the name) of the Matrix component (only takes into accounts wins and losses) and the Pyth component (strength-of-opponent adjusted Pythagorean expectation)) to determine a win probability for each matchup, and then summed each team's schedule to predict their number of wins. The standard deviation in a team's wins is 2, which was determined both mathematically and via a short simulation (which then allows me to estimate the probability each pick (over or under) is correct).
Win totals were gathered from this article, and are updated as of May 8.
| Division | Team | Projected 1st | Team | Projected 2nd | Team | Projected 3rd | Team | Projected 4th | ||||
| NFC East | DAL | Predicted | 10.26 | PHI | Predicted | 9.56 | NYG | Predicted | 7.17 | WSH | Predicted | 5.31 |
| O/U | 9.5 | O/U | 9.5 | O/U | 8 | O/U | 6 | |||||
| Pick | Over | Pick | Over | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 64.76% | Prob | 51.24% | Prob | 66.16% | Prob | 63.43% | |||||
| NFC West | SEA | Predicted | 11.69 | ARI | Predicted | 8.71 | SF | Predicted | 7.33 | STL | Predicted | 6.79 |
| O/U | 11 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 7.5 | O/U | 8 | |||||
| Pick | Over | Pick | Over | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 63.56% | Prob | 54.23% | Prob | 53.42% | Prob | 72.68% | |||||
| NFC North | GB | Predicted | 10.39 | DET | Predicted | 8.50 | MIN | Predicted | 6.37 | CHI | Predicted | 5.62 |
| O/U | 11 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 7 | O/U | 7 | |||||
| Pick | Under | Pick | Over | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 61.92% | Prob | 50.09% | Prob | 62.38% | Prob | 75.55% | |||||
| NFC South | NO | Predicted | 8.49 | CAR | Predicted | 7.86 | ATL | Predicted | 7.85 | TB | Predicted | 4.81 |
| O/U | 9 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 8 | O/U | 6 | |||||
| Pick | Under | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 59.99% | Prob | 62.61% | Prob | 53.06% | Prob | 72.33% | |||||
| AFC East | NE | Predicted | 11.75 | BUF | Predicted | 9.31 | MIA | Predicted | 8.52 | NYJ | Predicted | 5.84 |
| O/U | 10.5 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 9 | O/U | 7 | |||||
| Pick | Over | Pick | Over | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 73.47% | Prob | 65.75% | Prob | 59.44% | Prob | 71.91% | |||||
| AFC West | DEN | Predicted | 10.91 | KC | Predicted | 9.54 | SD | Predicted | 8.32 | OAK | Predicted | 4.24 |
| O/U | 10 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 8 | O/U | 5.5 | |||||
| Pick | Over | Pick | Over | Pick | Over | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 67.49% | Prob | 69.82% | Prob | 56.29% | Prob | 73.52% | |||||
| AFC North | BAL | Predicted | 9.29 | PIT | Predicted | 8.64 | CIN | Predicted | 8.28 | CLE | Predicted | 6.25 |
| O/U | 9 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 6.5 | |||||
| Pick | Over | Pick | Over | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 55.79% | Prob | 52.88% | Prob | 54.43% | Prob | 54.89% | |||||
| AFC South | IND | Predicted | 10.21 | HOU | Predicted | 9.26 | JAC | Predicted | 4.56 | TEN | Predicted | 4.35 |
| O/U | 10.5 | O/U | 8.5 | O/U | 5.5 | O/U | 5.5 | |||||
| Pick | Under | Pick | Over | Pick | Under | Pick | Under | |||||
| Prob | 55.73% | Prob | 64.76% | Prob | 68.06% | Prob | 71.76% | |||||
For what it's worth, I went 16-15-1 two years ago, when I only used each team's straight Pythagorean expectations. The MDS Model takes into account a lot more factors than that of two years ago.
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